Measles Epidemic: the SIR model

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       This report was written for my undergraduate Calculus II class. The mock-scenario involves a measles outbreak on an isolated island with 50,000 inhabitants. To help monitor the situation, I employed a naive epidemiological model to provide estimations for the rate of transmission under various conditions.

       I implemented the model naively by making three simplifying, but not necessarily implausible assumptions:

  • No mortality rate
  • Permanent immunity once recovered
  • Short time horizon in which there is no need to consider immigration and emigration

       Other diseases may certainly require a more complex model. In the case of a simulated measles epidemic, however, the differential equations model employed in this paper may be sufficient. The finished paper can be accessed here.